WHEN A GENERAL SAYS HE IS AFRAID, THEN WHO IS SAFE?

Former President, General Olusegun Obasajo (rtd) has recently added his voice into the torrent of comments, concerns and fears expressed by many Nigerians about a dangerous and imminent revolution the nation is drifting towards, unless urgent steps and measures are taken both by government and the citizens. The former President and elder statesman stated that Nigeria will soon witness a revolution, the danger of which can only be imagined.

Obasanjo, who made the this statement at the weekend during the West African Regional Conference on Youth Employment, in Dakar, Senegal, said that he is afraid, adding that when a General says he is afraid, that means the danger ahead is real and potent. He added that the danger posed by an army of unemployed youth in Nigeria is an imminent threat to Nigeria’s nationhood.

This is not the first time this issue was raised. Many social and political analysts, public affairs commentators, journalists and indeed other well meaning Nigerians have been calling the attention of both the government and good people of Nigeria about many signs and indicators of an imminent danger facing the country that could lead to a dangerous revolution as a result of youth unemployment and abject poverty in the nations as outlined by, Obasanjo. There are also other factors that other contributors in the discourse emphasize. This include bad leadership, unprecedented level of corruption and abuse of public trust, ethno-religious  intolerance, unfair distribution of national resources, collapse of the civil service and the rise mediocrity, the spate of insecurity in the form of crimes, militancy, terrorism, etc.

Barely seven months before General Obasanjos’s warning against an imminent revolution in Nigeria, another General and former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari had in April this year gave the same warning as long as things continue to remain the way they are or even worsen in Nigeria. Even though the two Generals based their assessments and judgments on different factors; such that Obasanjo sees growing youth unemployment and abject poverty as the driving force for the revolution, while in Buhari’s view, the continued rise in corruption and shortchanging of Nigerians by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are the major factors that would lead to the inevitable revolution in the country in the near future.

Even though revolutions, which simply mean a forcible, pervasive and often violent change of a social or political order by a sizeable segment of a country’s population, which is usually spontaneous and not really planned, but for two military generals and former heads of state, who also lead the two major political parties in the country to warn the nation about an imminent revolution in Nigeria, is indeed something to take very seriously and not treated with kid-glove

In addition, taking into consideration the recent Arab spring that brought about revolutionary changes in many North-African and Middle-eastern states, the much talked about United States’ prediction that Nigeria would disintegrate in a couple of years, other historical revolutionary indicators and triggers such as alarming rise in societal ills, crimes, insecurity, deprivation, poverty, injustice, human rights violation and lack of basic amenities, such as healthcare, educate, housing and youth unemployment are all prevalent in Nigeria.

Although from the leadership point of view, a revolution might seem farfetched, it would be delusional not to reconcile history, old rhetoric and tired excuses, with the recent warnings by two military generals and former heads of state and the prevailing social, economic and political realities in Nigeria. Contrary to the perception of the nation’s leadership and others who see any kind of revolution in Nigeria as not feasible, current realities in the nation are strong indicators that Nigeria is indeed ripe for a revolution.

Those that have the notion that revolution in Nigeria is impossible, at least not in the near future, usually premise their judgments on some of the following reasons. One, Nigeria’s transition away from military rule since 1999 and successive democratic leadership in 2003, 2007 and 2011. So in their assumption, most of the revolutions in the Arab world were mostly triggered by long stay of undemocratic leaders and their attempt to perpetuate themselves or bequeath to their children after their demise. Two, some say that Nigeria’s ethnic diversity, sectarian, religious and regional sentiments are all mitigating factors against a successful revolution unlike in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, where the people share the same language and ethnicity and have less or even no regional divides. Three, unlike Egyptians, Nigerians do not trust their security agencies, both the military and police, either because of their questionable conduct in quelling restiveness in different parts of the country, or for being partisan and government controlled institutions, who would not hesitate to crackdown, open fire and shoot revolutionary protesters, if directed to do so. Simply, Nigerians do not think or believe that the military or police would behave in the manner their Egyptian counterparts did.

Other obstacles in Nigeria, which the government and supporters of the status quo, capitalize on include, the people’s nonchalant attitude and unwillingness to make the required sacrifices, withstand pressure, go hungry, sleepless and bathless for days, as well as the so-called ‘on-your-own’ and ‘my hand no dey am-o’ syndrome. But more interestingly, many Nigerians are of the view that, all large number of those who advocate for a revolution, especially the elites are not sincere or advocating for the sake of good governance and ameliorating development challenges, rather they are only interested in using the people as stepping stones to upstage those in power, secure political powers, gain recognition, political appointments or for some other narrow personal interests. Nonetheless, revolutionary indicators are vividly evident and present in Nigeria today, and the grievance and suffering levels are high and continually resonant, therefore making it a likely candidate for a revolution, and possibly a violent one (God forbid).

Apparently, the nation today is in a serious turmoil. All the six geo-political zones of the counry are entangled in one form of social conflict and restiveness or the other, ranging from militancy, insecurity of kidnappings, organized crimes and armed robbery, sectarian violence and growth of fundamentalism that has both religious, terrorist and political undertones. These challenges combined with the general problems of bad governance, flagrant corruption, massive unemployment and abject poverty makes for a very explosive political landscape in Nigeria. It would therefore, not amount to an exaggeration to say that critical revolution markers and tripwires both exist in Nigeria, and the spark could start from anywhere and at anytime.

Therefore, the two generals and former heads of state, General Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd) and General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), with their pedigree, experience and depth of understanding of the nation had both at different occasions and time warned the nation of an imminent revolution in the country pretty soon, and indeed these assertions by the two generals are indeed something to pay keen attention to. Both have their reasons and assessments for drawing such a conclusion, and that cannot be described as being alarmist, but acknowledging prevailing realities in the nation.

As desirable as a revolutionary change in Nigeria is, no one should pray for revolution, because no one knows what form it might take. Yet revolutionary change in Nigeria is very possible and imminent, it is only a matter of time when revolution becomes the only alternative to the people as long as things do not improve.